We quantified deviations in regional forest biomass from simple extrapolation of plot data by the biomass expansion factor method (BEF) versus estimates obtained from a local biomass model, based on large-scale empirical field inventory sampling data. The sources and relative contributions of deviations between the two models were analyzed by the boosted regression trees method. Relative to the local model, BEF overestimated accumulative biomass by 22.12%. The predominant sources of the total deviation (70.94%) were stand-structure variables. Stand age and diameter at breast height are the major factors. Compared with biotic variables, abiotic variables had a smaller overall contribution (29.06%), with elevation and soil depth being the most important among the examined abiotic factors. Large deviations in regional forest biomass and carbon stock estimates are likely to be obtained with BEF relative to estimates based on local data. To minimize deviations, stand age and elevation should be included in regional forest-biomass estimation.

Maps of Nanjing County, Fujian, China; a vicinity map showing Fujian Province within China, b inset map of Fujian Province showing the vicinity of Nanjing County, c outline map of Nanjing County